This brief and methodological note have updated the previous analysis of the long-term effects of COVID-19 on the future of food security. To determine updated impacts, the most recent insights on COVID-19, specifically the effects the pandemic has had on economic growth and recovery, were used to quantify development progress on food security to 2040 in three scenarios:
A COVID-19 Current Pathscenario projecting development progress in a world with COVID-19, using the most recent data and insights on COVID-19 effects on economic growth, inequality, education losses, and government debt.
A more pessimistic COVID-19 Unequal Pathsscenario projecting development progress in a world with COVID-19, with long-term worsening effects of COVID-19 primarily falling to low- and middle-income countries.
A counterfactual No-COVID scenario, projecting development progress in a world without impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. This scenario uses 2019 economic growth rate forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and does not account for COVID-19 school closures and associated learning losses. This scenario serves as the baseline against which to assess the effects of COVID-19.
Please note that USAID’s Research Technical Assistance Center (RTAC) has concluded. The RTAC website will be decommissioned in the next few months. Some materials will be transferred to the NORC website and the USAID Learning Lab website in the coming weeks. However, we recommend downloading any materials you would like to preserve at this time.
If you have any questions about RTAC, or the materials created through RTAC, please email miller-sutherland@norc.org.
